The decision to invade Iraq was the biggest foreign policy blunder since the Treaty of Versailles.

While watching the January Democratic Presidential debate, one of the moderators at 538.com, Nathaniel Rakich, said this:

“Twenty years later, and George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld’s arguments for going to war in Iraq are leading off a presidential debate. It just speaks to how consequential that era in American history turned (out to be).”

I couldn’t agree more, except that this does not go nearly far enough.  The decision to invade Iraq in 2003 will go down as one of the worst political decisions ever made.  The long term ramifications are certainly being felt now, but will be felt for generations.

Let’s review where we were in 2003: The United States had “won” the Cold War, had established itself as the guarantor of safety for sovereign nations during the Gulf War, had refrained from invading Iraq in 1991, had a growing economy, low inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment, a budget surplus, and incredible world-wide good will after the 9/11 attacks.  The effort to find Osama bin Laden had yet to be successful, but the Taliban was on the run, and most of the world was supportive of our military intervention.  The National Debt had decreased from 8 Trillion to 7.5 Trillion.

The decision to invade Iraq overturned those positives.  

It overturned American foreign policy.  George HW Bush laid out a New World Order, where the strong couldn't swallow up the weak, and American power would be used to build coalitions to keep the peace around the world.  Once George W Bush decided on the policy of preemption, the United States was no longer perceived as leading a coalition of nations interested in limiting aggression.  We were now using military force to get resources, change governments we didn’t like, and, essentially, continue, with missionary zeal, the process of trying to make the whole world just like the US - even at gunpoint.  In short, military adventurism, like Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, was back on the table.  And sure enough, Russia takes Crimea and invades Ukraine.  What moral leg do we have to stand on?  And even if we did decide to intervene, how could we get the political support or afford it?  

 

It created ISIL.  ISIL was a product of the power vacuum in Iraq after the ground war.  Not only did the war provide the fertile ground for recruits and create an ideal environment, it also helped in the actual organization.  It is widely known and reported that the eventual leadership of ISIL  organized themselves in the US prison camps after the ground war was over as reported in Business Insider and the Washington Post.

“Camp Bucca has previously been credited with providing the perfect environment for a terrorist group to form, but Ahmed's comments describe in more detail just how integral the prison was in allowing jihadists to organize.”

The War in Iraq was a disaster financially.  Not only was the war itself costly, but the decisions made by the Bush administration and the Republicans to CUT taxes while increasing spending helped to balloon the deficit.  The only way they were even coming close to balancing the budget was through the incredible wealth being generated by the housing bubble so there was no chance that would get regulated.  So by the time the bubble bursts, the US hits 10%+ unemployment, the debt has grown to 11 trillion (and as Obama tried to dig out from under this disaster, would continue to grow to 19 trillion by 2016).  

 

It halted the progress that WAS being made in the Islamic world.  Karen Armstrong writes convincingly about the path that Iran was on before 2003, for instance.  Greater freedom, plurality, women’s rights, just to name a few of the changes that she observed in her excellent short history of Islam.  After the invasion, a wave of reactionary thought subsumed Iranian politics and they began to try to build nuclear weapons again.  

 

It gave Osama bin Laden the win.  Given what has happened to al Qaeda after 9/11, this seems like a ridiculous statement.  But we have to look at the real goals of 9/11.  I believe that he wanted to weaken the United States by getting us involved in unwinnable wars, like Afghanistan, with which, as a fighter in the mujahadeen, he was so familiar.  I believe that he wanted to cause the United States to overexert itself financially, the way the Soviet Union did.  

The Invasion of Iraq changed the course of history.  Once the proud moral leader of the free world, The United States is now in a weaker position globally and financially.  Authoritarianism, as practiced by Russia and China seems as appealing as liberal democracy does.

So what is the path forward: Admit it was a mistake and apologize.  Understand that the reason for the hatred are long standing grievances and economic disparity and inequality.  Until we recognize that we became the aggressor in 2003, and start to do something about the real poverty in the world at large (and at home), we can’t regain the moral high ground and have liberal democracy seem to be the best path forward for the billions that are looking to better their lives.